By Garin Groff – East Valley Tribune
Real estate experts predict the Valley’s years-long housing glut is reaching its end and, as early as this spring, could stun home buyers by transforming into a shortage.
The crunch is expected to be more pronounced in the East Valley, where some subdivisions are approaching build-out and other builders are raising prices.
The prediction may seem outlandish given how gloomy real estate news has been for years, said Mike Orr, director of the Arizona State University Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice.
But a growing demand and shrinking supply has driven home prices up in recent months, he said. Orr thinks that’s gone unnoticed to people who will enter the market this spring, in what is typically the peak time for sales activity.
“They’re going to be surprised that it’s so hard to buy a house. They’ve been hearing for so long that there’s a glut of homes,” Orr said. “They’ll go out and find there’s not a lot to choose from and every time they bid, there’ll be three or four other offers.”
The shrinking supply is a mirror image of what happened in 2006, when there was a lag before the public realized the number of new homes had ballooned into a problem, Orr said. About 58,000 homes were on the market by late 2007. The long-term average is about 33,000 homes listed at any given time.
That’s down to 25,000 now or 19,000 when accounting for homes that have deals pending, Orr said. The unusually short supply will continue to shrink.
“By the time we get to 2013, it’s quite likely that we’ll need a lot of new homes,” Orr said.
A short supply should trigger price jumps for existing homes this year, said Jim Belfiore, president of Belfiore Real Estate Consulting. Prices went up 3.1 percent last year, but he argues they should have rose 20 percent in response to a 41 percent drop in real estate listings.
He expects that 20 percent jump will happen in 2012, starting with a 6 percent to 11 percent rise by March.
Belfiore’s company surveys each of the Valley’s 400 active subdivisions on a regular basis to gauge prices and sales activity. Belfiore predicts shortages will grow as 2012 goes on because 34 percent — or 136 subdivisions — will be sold out in a year.
Sales are especially strong in Queen Creek, where a jump in sales has allowed eight of 20 subdivisions to raise prices.
“The East Valley is a top performer,” Belfiore said. “In Gilbert, there are 58 subdivisions that are active today. It might be the most active submarket in the southwestern United States. Builders are pining for new lots. There’s a land shortage in Gilbert. Chandler is the same deal.”
The number of permits issued last year was a 40-year low, at about 7,000, Belfiore said. He expects that will grow to 10,400 this year, 15,800 in 2013 and 23,200 in 2014.
The construction should further boost the economy. Each new home creates 2.5 jobs for three months, Belfiore said.
Belfiore expects a strong 2012 because of falling unemployment, exceptionally low prices and record low interest rates. The market could be especially strong if employment gains continue and banks relax their lending standards, he said.
This year’s real estate market should be the best in five years, Orr said. It will take several years to resemble a normal market and any increases will be far short of what created the bubble, he said.
“I don’t think there will be the same speculation there was, but there might be a lot of people who do want to buy a house in the next two years, thinking, ‘If I don’t buy now, I might miss out,’” Orr said.
The number of foreclosures and short sales remains high but will be less of a factor in the market as time goes on, said Bob Bemis, CEO of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. Distressed homes are mostly the target of investors. Families tend to focus on new homes or traditional resales, he said.
The market showed signs of returning to health last year, he said. Median sale prices rose 6.5 percent to $117,000, and average sale prices were up 3.5 percent, to $162,000. He expects a burst of activity at some point in 2012.
Bemis said he expects potential buyers could dismiss a real estate professional’s rose-tinted predictions, given how they are known for saying there’s never been a better time to property. But he said skeptics should give weight to Orr, whose role at ASU divorces him from having any skin in the game.
“We’re very close on agreement on where we’re headed,” Bemis said. “It’s just a matter of degree.”
By Les Christie – CNNMoney.com
According to real estate web site Trulia, buying was cheaper than renting in 74% of the country’s 50 largest cities in July.
Detroit, according to Trulia, is another metro area where buying is better. The median price for a condo or townhouse is about seven times annual rent. Home prices in Mesa, Ariz. and Fresno, Calif. also clock in at seven times rent.
Arlington, Texas, Sacramento, Calif., Phoenix and Jacksonville, Fla. all had buy-rent ratios of eight, Trulia said.
Top renter’s markets:
Even though rents average $2,980 a month in New York (the highest of any of the 50 markets), it’s still the best city for renters, according to Trulia’s survey.
Paying for the same kind of two-bedroom Manhattan apartment would cost 36 times as much, nearly $1.3 million.
One surprising place where renting is cheaper is Ft. Worth, Texas; buying exceeds renting costs by 32 times. Part of the reason is there are relatively few condos in the city and they tend to be upscale and costly. That, combined with low rents of about $9,500 a year, make renting cheaper.
Omaha, Neb., where buying is 27 times annual rents, Seattle and San Francisco, which both clock in with purchase prices that are 24 times rents, and Kansas City, at 22 times rents, are other places where renting makes financial sense.
Should you rent or buy?
The buy-rent calculation is just one part of the decision-making process. Other factors include:
How long you plan to stay. If you’re not keeping the home for several years, transactional costs of buying and selling (e.g; commissions, closing costs) can wipe out any buying edge.
By John Gittelsohn – Bloomberg
Phoenix, where foreclosures have surged and prices plummeted since the U.S. housing bubble burst, and Atlanta are the best potential markets for the sale of newly built homes, Barclays Capital said in a report today.
Atlanta has the potential for 47,317 new houses a year, followed by Phoenix with 46,485 and Dallas with 33,997, Jeff Meli, Vincent Foley, Cedric Morris and Robert Tayon, analysts with Barclays, wrote in the study. Phoenix leads 16 metro areas examined for potential revenue with $4.45 billion in new home sales. It’s followed by Washington with $3.94 billion and San Diego with $3.31 billion.
“The reality is that housing is a region-by-region story,” Foley said in a telephone interview from New York. “And most of the big public homebuilders are reasonably positioned to benefit from an upturn because they’re in the right markets.”
The projection for revived home construction in Phoenix, which the Barclays analysts called “surprising,” is based on the city’s growing population and speedy absorption of distressed real estate, according to the report. Barclays gave no time frame for its sales forecasts, which will occur after the cities “clear themselves of distressed inventory and excess supply,” it said.
“Regions that have pushed foreclosures through the pipeline quickly should see demand for new homes earlier than those that have allowed their backlog to grow,” Meli, Foley, Morris and Tayon wrote.
Second-Highest Foreclosures
Phoenix-area home prices are 56 percent below the June 2006 peak, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index, compared with a 32 percent decline for the 20 cities tracked by the index. The Phoenix metropolitan area had the second-highest rate of foreclosure filings in the first six months of this year, behind Las Vegas, with one in 28 households receiving a notice compared with a national average of one per 111 homes, RealtyTrac Inc. reported July 28.
“After falling to a low of 1.1 percent in 2009, population is expected to grow 2.6 percent annually in Phoenix for the next five years,” according to the Barclays report. “Such renewed inflows should support demand for new homes, leading to a recovery in several of the top 15 largest builders that have a presence in the region.”
Meritage Homes Corp. (MTH), a Scottsdale, Arizona-based builder, has about 53 percent of its home sales in markets with the best outlook, the most of any company, Barclays reported. It’s followed by PulteGroup Inc. with 39 percent, D.R. Horton Inc. and MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC) with 32 percent each, and KB Home (KBH) with 31 percent.
Beazer, Ryland
Homebuilders with the smallest share in the best markets are M/I Homes Homes Inc. with 8 percent, Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH) with 18 percent, Ryland Group Inc. (RYL) and Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) with 19 percent each, and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) with 23 percent, according to Barclays.
The 12-member Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding Index has fallen 26 percent this year.
“While improved operating performance may take several quarters to materialize, the recent selloff provides a potential entry point for some of the long risk recommendations that follow from our analysis,” the Barclays analysts said.
